Wednesday, April 20, 2016

Projection of how tied Trump and cruz should end this racing

Here are some ways the Republican and Democratic nominating contests could unfold. Adjust the sliders to see how the outcomes can change. Each line in the charts represents one possible outcome.

Republicans

Donald J. Trump scored a big victory in New York where he is estimated to have won more than 90 delegates, leaving him with a sizable lead in the race for the Republican nomination.

If Mr. Trump maintains his current level of support in the remaining races, he could win a delegate majority before the convention, but it will be close.

StateDeleg.DateCT284/26DE16MD38PA17RI19IN575/3NE365/10WV34OR285/17WA445/24CA1726/7MT27NJ51NM24SD291,237 delegates needed to winEach line represents one simulationTrumpTrumpCruzCruzKasichKasichTrump847Cruz543Kasich147

Average results after April 9

Trump 44%
Cruz 43%
Kasich 13%
No other candidate has a realistic chance of capturing the delegates required to win the nomination outright. Even if Ted Cruz were to win all of the remaining delegates, it is a near impossibility for him to reach the 1,237-delegate threshold.
Though Mr. Trump is in a strong position, his path to winning enough delegates to secure the Republican nomination is not assured. Breaching the 1,237-delegate threshold requires him to maintain the same level of voter support in the contests ahead. If the dynamics of the race shift against him even slightly, he will fall short. Mr. Cruz and Gov. John Kasich of Ohio will try to earn enough delegates between them to deny Mr. Trump a majority and force the convention to undertake a second ballot. At that point, anything can happen.
In addition, there are several caveats that add uncertainty to these numbers. In a few states, there are delegates still to be allocated. Even delegates that have already been allocated can be reassigned.
The delegate count as reported by The A.P. lags the total vote somewhat. In the chart below, we have included delegate estimates from The Green Papers, which include the unallocated delegates from states that have already voted.

Mr. Trump’s delegate lead

Reported by The A.P.
Estimated by The Green Papers
IANHSCNVALAKARGAMAMNOKTNTXVTVAWYKSKYLAMEPRHIIDMIMSDCFLILMONCNMOHAZUTWICO304298

Democrats

In the most recent primary in New York, Hillary Clinton won more than 120 delegates, further widening her margin with Bernie Sanders in the delegate count.

Mrs. Clinton can win less than half of the remaining vote and still earn a majority of the pledged delegates by June.

StateDeleg.DateCT554/26DE21MD95PA189RI24IN835/3WV295/10KY555/17OR61PR606/5CA4756/7MT21NJ126NM34ND18SD20DC206/14Half of all pledged delegatesEach line represents one simulationClintonClintonSandersSandersClinton1427Sanders1151

Average results after April 9

Clinton 45%
Sanders 55%
Democratic delegates are awarded proportionally by congressional district, and in states that have voted so far, Mrs. Clinton has won more than half of the vote, on average. The lack of winner-take-all states on the Democratic side makes it tougher for Mr. Sanders to close the delegate gap.
Mr. Sanders is also significantly trailing Mrs. Clinton in superdelegates, the roughly 700 Democratic Party officials whose support counts toward the nomination. In past elections, superdelegates have supported the candidate who receives the most pledged delegates, and they are free to switch candidates at any time before the convention in July. To have a shot at overtaking Mrs. Clinton in pledged delegates, Mr. Sanders would need a series of large victories in coming contests, increasing his vote share to about 60 percent, on average.

Mrs. Clinton’s delegate lead

Reported by The A.P.
Estimated by The Green Papers
IANHNVSCALASARCOGAMAMNOKTNTXVTVAKSLANEMEMIMSNMFLILMONCOHAZIDUTAKHIWAWIWY281240
This interactive delegate calculator uses each state’s delegate allocation rules, along with estimates of how favorable each district is for each candidate. To compute these estimates, we used a model based on demographics and results from past primaries and caucuses. Delegate totals are as reported by The Associated Press.

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